(CNN) - London The latest developments in the crisis of the euro are the holiday parties, we will at the time of the year. Make us merry, binge - and then suffer horrible hangovers in the days following. Long did it take for the euro-gueule of wood to arrive. The bonhomie of the euro-deal has disappeared.
I decided to wait a few days before writing on the Brussels agreement. It is easy to succumb to the enthusiasm of a late-night agreement, believing that he will bring "peace in our time" and a "chicken in every pot". To hear leaders EZ17 + Friday, it was certainly a question of dotting the is and crossing the Ts. Only with the reflection of a few days can see you what works, what is not - and will change their mind.
Rise and fall of euro
The "fiscal pact" was a beautiful piece of engineering German-French, in the best traditions of euro-fudge. It establishes the "tax rule" requiring a balanced budget for all the signatories of the Treaty, followed automatic of sanctions for those that lack of fall.
In any event, it offered vast new powers to the European Commission and the European institutions, but did not address the guarantees of the country as the Ireland who may need referendums to approve their. He left much to be negotiated between now and March is not surprising that the Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas described now as a sheet of blank paper.
Jargon buster
The objection greater, that I have in this new Treaty, is that it assumes that the deficits are a bad thing. There is no flexibility to General deficits and yet, as shown in the past three years, flexibility in the development of policies is crucial.
The ability for the United States to have the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a stimulus and ultra low monetary policy all the roles played by ensuring a recession did not become a depression. The UK introduced quantitative easing, or EQ, then of2, while the Government runs a deficit of 9%. And yet, the economy has slowed to a recession. Imagine if they had been chained with the nonsense of this agreement.
Ultimately, this cannot importance because European countries have shown a remarkable ability to do what they want, when they want. Everyone is conveniently forgetting the fact of Europe had a previous strict regime on deficits: the Maastricht criteria, which becomes part of the stability pact. Nations were supposed to have deficits of 3% or less. Except the Germany and the France, two other bludgeoned by suspending the Pact in 2005, when the going got tough.
Map of Europe debt
In other words, they have changed the rules. They have done before, and the results are clear see. They can do again. Now party while hard time. There is a future more hangover.
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar